Analysis of fiscal policy strategies for achieving economic stability in Iraq (2008-2024)

Abstract

This dissertation aims to present an exhaustive analysis of various fiscal policies adopted by the Iraqi government to attain macroeconomic stability in Iraq during the period 2008-2024, which was marked by unprecedented turmoil. This research aims to present a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of various fiscal policies adopted by the government using both theoretical underpinnings and rigorous econometric techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of various fiscal policies adopted by the government to attain macroeconomic stability in Iraq, considering various exogenous shocks faced by the country during this period. This research aims to employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, bounds testing cointegration, along with Vector Error Correction model analysis. The empirical analysis focuses on an important period of time, including the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the oil price drop of 2014-2016, the ISIS conflict of 2014-2017, and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-2021. The analysis utilizes exhaustive annual data, including data from the Central Bank of Iraq, Ministry of Finance, and World Bank databases. The analysis shows that the effectiveness of different fiscal policies in Iraq has been limited by institutional factors.